U.S. Elections 2008

News & Polls

30 October 2008
How the Media "Call" the U.S. Presidential Election

By Stephen Kaufman
Staff Writer

Washington — With exit polling data and vote projection analyses in hand, the news media once again will be putting their professional credibility on the line during the evening and early morning hours of November 4 and November 5 by declaring victors in U.S. states well before most of the votes have been counted.

A state’s election results are not official until all votes are counted and the outcome certified by a state official, usually the day after the election. However, American news organizations invest substantial resources to “call” states as soon as possible after the polls close. In doing so, they straddle a very fine line between the endless competition to be the first to report the news, and the desire to avoid errors and retractions.

No U.S. election highlighted the pitfalls more effectively than the 2000 presidential contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore. In that race, where the outcome in Florida’s voting became the deciding factor, television viewers saw the state called for Gore shortly after the polls closed in the evening of November 7, then that was reversed and it was awarded to Bush a few hours later, and then finally the race was determined to be “too close to call” in the early morning hours of November 8.

The general public was not the only group suffering from electoral whiplash. Social scientist Joseph Uscinski, now with the University of Miami, wrote in 2007 that once the news media predicted Bush had won Florida, and therefore the presidency, that information “prompted” a telephoned concession call from Gore to Bush. The subsequent announcement that the outcome could not yet be determined led to Gore’s placing a second call to Bush to retract his concession. The winner ultimately was decided 35 days later by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling.

In 2004, a chastened and more cautious group of journalists waited for a victory or concession declaration from Bush or challenger John Kerry before declaring a national winner, according to Uscinski.

NATIONAL ELECTION POOL PROVIDES COMMON DATA SOURCE

In 2003, ABC News, the Associated Press (AP), CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News created the National Election Pool (NEP), which is the primary source of data behind media predictions on election night.

The organization relies on analysts from Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International to conduct and analyze exit polls and make projections. It also uses AP’s tabulation of voter returns from around the country. The data cover not only the presidential vote, but also Senate and House races and important state ballot initiatives. Any news outlet can sign up to get the information, but access comes with a $26,000 price tag.

Exit polling consists of interviews conducted nationwide by 6,000 pollsters on a sample population of voters, asking how they voted and collecting information such as gender, age, race and other issues related to the voter’s choice in different contests, according to Edison’s Web site. Sample election precincts are chosen based on factors such as previous voting characteristics, partisan demographics and the total number of voters.

With many Americans choosing to vote early, Edison and Mitofsky also have been collecting data before November 4 through phone calls, particularly targeting states with larger proportions of early voters.

THE NETWORKS MAKE THE FINAL DECISION

The Edison and Mitofsky analysts, under the supervision of NEP member representatives, assess the exit poll data, make predictions and provide all of their results to the subscribing networks, starting at 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, after being sequestered for most of the day to prevent any premature release of information.

Contacting several networks to find out how and when a news network decides to call a race, America.gov discovered much of the internal mechanism for network decision-making is a closely held secret because of the fierce competition among networks. The process appears to be an exercise in probability and projection based on a mixture of the sample exit polls, incoming precinct and county reports, statistics and an analysis of the demographics and issues influencing the local voting population.

Vaughn Ververs at CBS wrote in 2006 that network analysts also look for signs that would indicate errors in the NEP data. “For example, if an exit poll in a precinct which has traditionally favored one party by wide margins suddenly has the other side winning or if the exit polls indicate larger or smaller numbers of women voting than usual, the red flags should be waving,” he wrote.

Every network wants to be the first to declare a winner. But as former CBS anchor Dan Rather told his viewers in 2004, “We’d rather be last than be wrong.” Networks also are aware that calling states in the East, where polls have closed, while voting is still taking place in Western states could affect voter turnout.

In 2000, after his network rescinded its second erroneous call regarding Florida’s results, NBC’s Tom Brokaw acknowledged, "Not only do we have egg on our face, we have the whole omelet." Certainly, the evening and early morning hours of November 4–5 will be a night of high anxiety for teams of media analysts as they struggle between the twin pressures to get it right and remain competitive.

For more information on exit polling and the NEP, visit the Web site created by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

back to top ^