U.S. Elections 2008

News & Polls

10 November 2008
Democrats' Success in Oregon Highlights Shift in Electorate

By Steve Holgate
Special Correspondent

Portland, Oregon — On a night of historic change in the United States, the Oregon 1st Congressional District underlined the twin themes of change and continuity.

The district supported Senator Barack Obama's bid to become became president, and Representative David Wu, the only Chinese-born member of the United States Congress, won his re-election bid by a wide margin. Perhaps not coincidentally, both candidates were Democrats.

Within the Oregon 1st, Obama garnered a comfortable margin of victory in all counties except tiny Yamhill, according to the unofficial results posted on the Web site of the Oregon secretary of state. The site reports Wu received 72 percent of the vote and local businessman Joel Haugen, the candidate of the Independent Party after he resigned his nomination as the Republican candidate, received slight less than 18 percent. Three third-party candidates split the remainder. (See “Congressional Candidate Fights on Two Fronts in Oregon 1st.”)

It was a very good night for Democrats in what once had been the most Republican state on the West Coast. In addition to the wins by Obama and Wu, the Democrats won contests for the state offices of secretary of state, treasurer and attorney general. Democrats also achieved a substantial increase in their majority in the state House of Representatives while holding their lead in the state Senate.

The Democrats’ biggest win of the night was likely their closest in Oregon. In a race that remained too close to call long after the polls closed on election night, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley edged out 12-year incumbent Gordon Smith by 3 percentage points: 48.79 percent to Gordon’s 45.70 percent. (See “Oregon’s Close Senate Race Sharp Contrast to House Contest.”)

Oregon voters also rejected the majority of ballot initiatives, including four of the five measures promoted by Bill Sizemore, the king of voter initiatives in Oregon. Even the fifth one may yet fail when all the ballots are counted. (See “Is Direct Democracy in Oregon Too Much of a Good Thing?”)

THE CHANGING FACE OF OREGON

The broad issue thrown into sharp relief by 2008 election results is the steep decline in Republican Party fortunes throughout Oregon. In part, the party’s problem in Oregon reflects national trends and the natural cycles of American politics but there is a distinct flavor to its challenges in Oregon.

A major challenge for Republicans is an inability to find candidates who appeal to a wide spectrum of the electorate, an inability rooted in the party’s past successes. For nearly 20 years, the Republican Party’s strong conservatism matched the mood of Oregon voters, but as the makeup and views of the electorate changed, the strong brand of conservatism shared by party leaders increasingly was out of step with voters.

The 2008 Oregon 1st race for Congress illustrates the problem. Joel Haugen espoused the moderate Republican views typical of those who used to get elected to this seat and is the kind of Republican candidate many analysts say could be elected in the Oregon 1st. Yet Haugen’s moderate views — and his endorsement of the Democratic presidential nominee — put him so at odds with local party leaders that he resigned the nomination and ran as an Independent, despite his winning 70 percent of the vote in the Republican primary election.

Even Bill Sizemore’s problems reflect the larger issue of the Republican Party’s declining fortunes because Sizemore was the party’s nominee for governor 10 years ago, and for years was a major voice in the party. Likewise, its gubernatorial nominee from six years ago, Kevin Mannix, could not win the party’s nomination for the Oregon 5th, strengthening the impression that party leaders might be out of step with their members.

Noteworthy Oregonian Republicans of recent history include former U.S. senators Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood and former Governor Tom McCall, all political moderates who appealed not only to Republicans, but also to Independents and Democrats. Wendall Wyatt, the last Republican to represent the Oregon 1st, had a similar approach. The question for Republicans in 2010 will be whether the party leadership can support moderate candidates.

Oregon’s political pendulum, as of Election Day 2008, clearly has swung to favor Democrats. How quickly it swings to the other end of its arc might depend on the Republican Party’s ability to find candidates in the political tradition of its most successful former statesmen.

This article is part of America.gov’s coverage of seven of the 435 U.S. congressional districts during the 2008 campaign. Each offers a different prism through which to view U.S. politics. For more information, see U.S Elections — State and Local.

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